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PUNE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT July 2014 - January 2015
Published By Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd.


Pune’s residential real estate market continues to face headwinds. All the leading indicators point to a challenging scenario. On an overall basis, things over the last 6 months have become more difficult on a variety of parameters. Inspite of this, the state government has increased the ready reckoner rates for calculation of stamp duty and added a further burden on the home buyers. We have already seen a drastic reduction in the development charges and premiums collected by the Pune Municipal Corporation on account of the sluggish market. Further burdening the industry will only slow things down further leading to lower revenues rather than enhanced revenues which is the objective of the government.

PRICES: The rate of price increase for 2014 has dropped substantially over 2013. Half yearly rate increases aren now below inflation (Figure 1). The last 12 months have seen the slowest increase in rates of only 5.3%. This as compared to 14.1% and 14.8% over the two prior years.

Figure 1 - SIX MONTHLY PRICE MOVEMENT



SUPPLY: Over the past 6 months, the gross stock has reduced from 245,369 units to 240,433 – a reduc-tion of 2.1% (indicating that the projects were being launched slower than the rate of comple- tion).During the same period, the unsold stock has increased from 66,350 units to 67,181 units – an increase of 1.2%.For the first time in 3years, the total number of projects has reduced from 2761 in June 2014 to 2683 in December 2014 (Figure 2).

Figure 2 - Overall Supply Situation



The unsold inventory in early stage projects has risen from 41.4% in December ’12 to 65.1% in December ’14 (Table 1). While the increase in the unsold stock for the early stage projects is 22.35%, the increase in the overall unsold stock % is 6.07%.
Clearly consumers are being far more careful and purchasing projects which are past the early stage of progress.


PERFORMANCE OF TOP 10 DEVELOPERS


While the overall numbers show a level of stress, we decided to assess whether this pain is felt across all developers or was there a group of developers less affected by the market scenario.We decided to use the list of top 10 developers announced by Bloomberg with JLL in the last quarter of 2014 (The list of developers is annexed herewith) There is clearly a differentiation between the top 10 developers and the rest, with the top 10 developer group sales outperforming the overall market. The following are our findings for this group - On an average, the top 10 developers as per the list have approx. 10% of the gross stock across the market (the top 10 developers are building/have built 10% of the total units under construction in Pune).
Unsold stock numbers are consistently lower across all stages of work for this subset of developers, indicating that these devel-opers are able to sell stock faster than the rest of the market.
(Table 2 shows the sold stock across various stages of work for the entire market compared to the top 10 subset)



This trend continues all the way to ready properties where the market has a sellout of 81%, the top 10 devel- opers have a sellout of 95.5%.Comparing the market share of gross stock, the top 10 developers have a market share of 32% in June 2014 and 36% in December 2014 of the premium plus and luxury segment.While sales for the overall market has declined by 18% (the sales for January to June 2014 was 54568 units while from July to December 2014 was 44424 units), the sales for the top 10 developers has seen a marginal decline of only 1.4%, lending further credence to the fact the customers prefer reputed developers with a consistent track record.

The numbers therefore clearly indicate that the market is rewarding the more reputed developers who have a track record. It seems the home buyers prefer investing in projects by these developers. While reasons for this are not covered by this survey, one can assume that challenging times lead consumers to veer towards safety. This is also evident from the fact that the early stages projects – those with the longest time to delivery are seeing slower sales than before.
We decided to assess the market in terms of supply and unsold stock based on the quoted rates
The table below shows the rates considered in December 12,December 13 and December 14 for 5 categories of homes (Table 3)



The methodology used was to classify the rates for each category for this year and apply the discount based on the overall market rates for previous rates. In general, the unsold stock percentage increases as we moved towards the upper end of the pricing spectrum (Figure 3), which stands to reason (Premium plus and Luxury units have a longer inventory turnover period compared to lesser priced units).

However, the Premium plus and Luxury segment in Dec’14 had 10,810 units unsold while the number was 10,872 units in Jun’14, a net reduction in unsold inventory in 6 months. The Budget and Value segments had 44,855 units unsold in Dec’14 while their number was 43,552 in June’14 a net increase in Unsold inventory in 6 months. So the increasing % of unsold inventory is not yet a cause for concern.
Clearly, this observation is in line with data on the top 10 developers (Home buyers prefer investing in projects by reputed developers that charge a premium).



Value and volume analysis

The following chart tracks the Total Value (in Crores) and the total area (in square feet) of the Unsold Inventory over the last 2 years (Fig 4).As can be seen, the value of the unsold inventory has jumped sharply in the last one year and has increased marginally by 1.57% in the last six months.The total unsold area (in saleable area terms) has increased from 5,95,93,727 sf (5.96 cr sqft) 12 months ago to 7,11,21,943 sf (7.11 cr sqft) in December 14.However, there is a slight increase from 7,07,92,884 cr sf(7.08 cr sqft) in June 14 to December 14



Highest inventory


The top 10 locations account for more than half of the total unsold units in Pune (Table 4) The following chart of the top 20 micromarkets with new supply shows that Wagholi, Bhosari Pradhikaran (Bhosari / Pradhikaran / Chikhali / Chikhali Pradhikaran / Moshi / Moshi Pradhikaran)are the markets that have seen the most infusion of new supply coming in followed by Dehu and Alandi Neighborhood (Figure 5). Of note is the fact that all top 5 areas where maximum units have been launched in the last 6 months are Non-PMC areas.






The average rate across all micro markets put together is Rs.5061 psft (December’14). The micro markets that have witnessed the maximum increase in prices over the last 24 months are listed below (Figure 6)Top Ten Highest Gainers (in the last 24 months Figure 6)

Top Ten Highest Gainers (in the last 24 months Figure 6)






Bottom Ten Lowest Gainers (in the last 24 months, Figure 7)







We did an analysis of price changes for the luxury locations of Model Colony, Aundh, Koregaon Park & Boat Club Road. The following are the average prices in these markets over the last 24 months (Table 5) The price history clearly indicates that key luxury markets in West Pune have not seen price movements mirroring those of the luxury markets of East Pune & have lagged behind substantially.



Summary

The reduction in the base interest rates of 25 basis points while positive will not do much to move the overall market. While the stock market has already responded to the new government and the changes that are taking place, the real estate market has been far more circumspect. Probably because the speculators and short term investors have moved out of the real estate sector over the past few years.



The genuine home buyers have seen difficult times with high interest rates as well as high inflation and low salary increases and this effect has led to home buyers taking a far more cautious approach this time around.

We hope that the union budget being presented in February will address some of the concerns that afflict the industry. The real estate sector,with its backward linkages to both the manufacturing as well as service sectors and also the skilled employment sector has the potential to boost the GDP however, home buyers need to see reason to convert their need to demand.


Media Contact : Sonia Kulkarni - sonia.kulkarni@ketchumsampark.com

Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd Contact : Nikunj Dube - nikunj.dube@gera.in

Copyright owned by Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd.
All data, the analysis thereof and the graphical representation in the report is the intellectual property of Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. and no part or whole of this report can be duplicated or quoted without the due permissions and credits given to Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. Photographs of residences are purely for representation and are royalty free stock images. This report expresses the views and opinions of the company only. The report has been prepared in good faith on the basis of data collected by an independant research arm of the company without any external third party verification.

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